I will continue to point out, whenever someone claims that rationalists were way ahead on Bitcoin, that knowing that Bitcoin might be adopted does not tell you very much about the per-unit value, which remains very arbitrary and speculative (in a way that literally makes it worse at its alleged core purpose of being a currency).
Before you start buying long-dated OOTM puts on TLT, I want to make sure you're aware that standard economics says that positive productivity shocks are deflationary, and will lead to lower interest rates. If there are theories out there that argue the opposite, I'd be interested in reading them.
I’m in a strange position here because although in theory AI should be amazing for my particular area of knowledge (lawyer to people spending 8 - 10 figures buying or investing businesses), and temperamentally I am very inclined to want to use it as much as possible, in practice it has a few, defined uses and outside of those the drawbacks are too severe.
I suspect a common situation in white collar work is that a skilled practitioner is much better than an llm, but a bottom-decile practitioner is actually much worse
I will continue to point out, whenever someone claims that rationalists were way ahead on Bitcoin, that knowing that Bitcoin might be adopted does not tell you very much about the per-unit value, which remains very arbitrary and speculative (in a way that literally makes it worse at its alleged core purpose of being a currency).
Before you start buying long-dated OOTM puts on TLT, I want to make sure you're aware that standard economics says that positive productivity shocks are deflationary, and will lead to lower interest rates. If there are theories out there that argue the opposite, I'd be interested in reading them.
Good post!
A couple of thoughts:
retail investors **could** have an edge by recognizing longterm thinking
Sears **could** have been Amazon
You know about REITs, right? Could be a way to invest in land if you don’t want the effort/illiquidity of owning a house
One note on REITs: the average yield is around 4% and that income is taxed as ordinary income
I’m in a strange position here because although in theory AI should be amazing for my particular area of knowledge (lawyer to people spending 8 - 10 figures buying or investing businesses), and temperamentally I am very inclined to want to use it as much as possible, in practice it has a few, defined uses and outside of those the drawbacks are too severe.
I suspect a common situation in white collar work is that a skilled practitioner is much better than an llm, but a bottom-decile practitioner is actually much worse